Are Robots Going to Take Your Job?

Written by: Keith Wagstaff

3 Comments 13 July 2011

robot arms

Anemic job growth and increased global competition has many people justifiably worried about their future employment prospects. Another reason people should be worried? Robots. While they might not take over the Earth with giant robot armies, they might take over your position as an office assistant. The Fiscal Times recently talked with Martin Ford, author of The Lights In the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, about how advances in robotics will affect future job markets.

Ford’s prediction?

Machines and computers are getting better at an accelerated rate, and I think within maybe 5 to 10 years things are going to get to the level where machines begin to surpass the ability of most people to do routine work. I base this partly on my belief that most of the work out there in the economy is routine in nature. There aren’t that many people that are paid to think creative thoughts.

That of course gets to an uncomfortable truth about the nature of work–while we certainly like to think that the jobs we do are important and that we are good at them, the reality of the situation is that most jobs could feasibly be done by machines (journalism included). But haven’t people been worried about this for years? True, these worries have been around for years, but Ford points out that while the robotics have existed for awhile, the computers to direct and manage them have not.

This is all changing. Ford points out that aside from CEOs, nobody has secretaries anymore–they have computers. I deposit my paychecks not with a bank teller but with an ATM. Law firms are already using software to sort through massive amounts of documents. Data entry and IT are both increasingly being automated. Even salespeople are in danger of being replaced by advanced computers. When we talk about the decline of the middle class, these are the jobs we should really be looking at. In the post-war boom, it was things like secretarial work, manufacturing and other moderately skilled positions that allowed people to achieve the “American dream,” i.e. house ownership, money for college, etc.

Now, unless you are in the top of your class at MIT, a secure, stable future isn’t guaranteed to you:

Look at the companies you can think of that have come to prominence in the last 10 years: Google, Facebook, Netflix, twitter – they’re all technology-intensive companies that hire people who are highly skilled, but don’t create jobs for average people.

There are a few labor-intensive parts of the economy left – big retailers, restaurants, hotels –but what happens when fast-food begins to automate? What happens when companies like Wal-Mart begin to use robots to stock shelves? It’s hard to imagine in the future they’ll be some new industry that will have to hire lots of average people

The fact is, technology isn’t going to slow down. Computers are only going to get more advanced. People might dismiss this talk as hyperbole, but that’s mainly because robots have, so far, mostly been limited to low-paying work like factory jobs. What happens when lawyers and other white-collar professionals start losing their jobs? Then you’ll start seeing a much more heated discussion. When all of the mid-range jobs that use to provide a middle-class lifestyle are gone, we’re going to have to start seriously thinking about how to restructure our economy–or face civil unrest.

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Photo: jurvetson, Flickr, CC

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3 Comments so far

  1. PF says:

    “I deposit my paychecks not with a bank teller but with an ATM. ”

    Providing we don’t have any nut jobs set off EMPs this all sounds plausible but in regards to ATM machines they are still to this day easy to tamper.

    Congratulations for having a sack sturdy enough to trust them.

    Me on the other hand I like knowing that I can blame Bob if something goes wrong and not ATM 9485zjd.

    • Brian says:

      PF, you’re completely in the minority here. The only person that I know in the entire world that doesn’t trust ATMs to deposit checks is my 90 year old senile grandmother.

  2. PF says:

    “The fact is, technology isn’t going to slow down. Computers are only going to get more advanced. ”

    Plus let me get deep for a minute.

    Is it really that technology itself won’t slow down or is it us ourselves that don’t want it to slow down?


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